I do think the following-75% chance of Trump becoming the Republican candidate, Clinton-99% chance of becoming the Democrat candidate.
The election: Clinton, a 90% chance of becoming the President, Trump, a 10% chance, if he is the Republican nominee. Although many pundits think the Republican party at best, will be a big big loser no matter what and even I believe that.
Trump is bright, a very very good reader of people and will run a very good race for President but his negatives are hard to overcome. He will move toward the center and if you doubt it, replay his comments after Super Tuesday and you will see that transition beginning. Cruz is correct; Trump is not a conservative but a pragmatist with braggadocio in his DNA. That said, many, but not all of the Republican leadership will eventually come around, suck it up and by the July convention, and support him.
However, even though he will move to tone down rhetoric, every outlandish thing he has said in the primary will turn into a Democrat commercial against him.
There is another option put forth by Mitt Romney and that is the Republican establishment putting on a full court press to deny Trump the nomination. If that happens, watch out, his ego will take hold and “Katie bar the door” as the saying goes. My prediction is that there would be a 75% chance he would make an independent run if the establishment were to cut him off at the knees. A move like that would cause a war that would automatically doom the new Republican nominee.
According to the Pew Research Center the American voter population is 23% Republican, 32% Democrat and 39% Independent. The primary system is a party function; the general election is where the independents really come into play. A very large majority of independents are middle of the road, middle income Americans who, most of which, I believe will have a difficult time voting Trump.
I may well be wrong; Trump’s position is that there are many “Reagan Democrats” who will support him. My view; yes a few, but not a lot, and given the demographics of the growth in the Latino community and the huge outpouring of support of African Americans for Clinton I believe its Clinton’s to lose.
Bottom line, all this is stuff is predictions and the real answer is, “It an’t over till it’s over.”